America First at Raisina: Opportunity or Uncertainty for India-US Relations?
When Christopher Landau arrives in New Delhi for the 2026 Raisina Dialogue, he carries more than diplomatic talking points. He represents Donald Trump’s revived “America First” doctrine — a policy framework that has reshaped US trade and foreign relations since returning to office.
Landau has said he looks forward to creating “win-wins” for both nations. Yet the very foundation of America First — centred on tariffs and US-centric economic recalibration — has complicated Washington’s commercial partnerships, including with India.
The visit comes at a delicate moment, as bilateral trade negotiations remain suspended amid legal and political turbulence in Washington.
The Raisina Dialogue, organised by the Observer Research Foundation in partnership with India’s Ministry of External Affairs, has emerged as a significant Indo-Pacific strategic forum. Landau’s participation signals that despite trade friction, Washington values India’s geopolitical importance.
Under the America First framework, the US imposed sweeping tariffs in April on several countries, including India. The combined tariff burden had reached 50% — including a punitive 25% levy linked to India’s purchase of Russian oil. An interim trade understanding on February 2 reduced tariffs on Indian goods to 18%, suggesting pragmatic flexibility.
However, the US Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling — striking down Trump’s global tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act — threw negotiations into uncertainty. The court held that the Act did not authorise such sweeping tariff measures.
In response, President Trump invoked the 1974 Trade Act to impose a temporary 10% tariff, later announcing an increase to 15%, though implementation timelines remain unclear. This legal seesaw has left trade partners unsure of Washington’s long-term policy direction.
For India, which seeks expanded market access and predictable tariff regimes, uncertainty complicates investment planning. Bilateral meetings scheduled in late February to finalise legal text for a trade agreement were postponed, with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal stating talks would resume once clarity emerges.
Beyond trade, Landau is expected to discuss defence cooperation, critical minerals supply chains and Indo-Pacific security architecture — areas where US-India alignment remains strong. Strategic cooperation has historically advanced even during economic disagreements.
Supporters of America First argue that recalibrating trade relationships strengthens domestic industry and corrects perceived imbalances. From Washington’s perspective, tariff leverage is a negotiation tool, not a repudiation of partnership.
Moreover, India and the US share converging interests in maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific. Defence ties have deepened over the past decade, and collaboration on technology and critical minerals reflects shared concerns about supply chain resilience.
It is also true that trade disagreements have not derailed broader strategic engagement before. Both democracies possess institutional mechanisms capable of weathering periodic friction.
Yet credibility remains key. For partners like India, stable and legally durable agreements matter more than interim arrangements vulnerable to judicial review or executive shifts.
Christopher Landau’s visit underscores both opportunity and ambiguity. The Raisina Dialogue offers a platform to reaffirm shared strategic objectives. But economic unpredictability risks overshadowing diplomatic goodwill.
If America First evolves into a framework that balances domestic priorities with reliable international commitments, “win-wins” may be possible. If, however, tariff policy continues to fluctuate under legal and political contestation, uncertainty could erode trust.
For India, the challenge lies in safeguarding strategic convergence while insisting on economic clarity. For the United States, credibility in partnership will depend not just on rhetoric, but on consistency.
Our Final Thoughts
India-US ties have matured beyond transactional trade disputes, rooted increasingly in shared geopolitical vision. Yet economic stability remains the bedrock of long-term cooperation.
As Raisina unfolds, both nations face a test: can strategic alignment withstand policy turbulence? The answer will shape not just bilateral ties, but the broader Indo-Pacific balance in a rapidly shifting global order.