Bangladesh Heads Into Pivotal Election Without Awami League, Gen Z Set to Shape Nation’s Political Future
Bangladesh is just two days away from one of the most consequential elections in its history, with the country set to vote on February 12 to elect its next government and Prime Minister. The 13th national election comes amid unprecedented political upheaval, marked by the absence of the once-dominant Awami League, which has been banned from participating following the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 after a student-led uprising.
With the Awami League out of the fray, the contest has narrowed largely to two rival coalitions — one led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the other by Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami. Nearly 12.8 crore registered voters, according to the Bangladesh Election Commission, are expected to cast their ballots across 42,779 polling stations, choosing representatives from 60 recognised political parties.
Awami League’s Exit Reshapes the Contest
For more than a decade, Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League dominated Bangladesh’s political landscape, governing from 2008 until 2024. Opposition parties frequently boycotted elections, alleging political suppression, arrests of leaders, and electoral manipulation. Following Hasina’s removal from power, she fled to India, while her party was banned and a death order was reportedly issued against her — developments that have fundamentally altered Bangladesh’s political equation.
The vacuum has intensified fears among minority communities, particularly Hindus, with local media reporting multiple incidents of lynching and targeted violence in recent months.
Gen Z at the Centre of Power Shift
This election is widely seen as a Gen Z-driven contest, with young voters expected to significantly influence outcomes and redefine Bangladesh’s domestic and foreign policy trajectory. Analysts suggest that a BNP-led government would likely seek to maintain relatively stable ties with India, while a Jamaat-led dispensation could tilt more openly towards Pakistan and deepen engagement with China. Jamaat’s youth allies have been vocal critics of what they describe as “New Delhi’s dominance” and have reportedly held meetings with Chinese diplomats.
Ground reports and opinion surveys indicate a marginal advantage for the BNP, though political observers caution that Jamaat could register its strongest-ever electoral performance.
Jamaat’s Legal Comeback and the July Charter Vote
Jamaat-e-Islami’s participation follows years of legal hurdles linked to its alleged role during the 1971 Liberation War in support of Islamabad. The party had been banned under the Hasina-led government after court rulings, but the Yunus-led interim administration lifted the ban. Its political registration was later restored following a Supreme Court decision.
Alongside the election, voters will also take part in a referendum on the “July Charter”, a proposed set of constitutional reforms aimed at restructuring governance and democratic institutions. Citizens will vote collectively “yes” or “no” on the reform package — a move seen as potentially transformative for Bangladesh’s political system.
Historical Context of Bangladesh’s Electoral Turmoil
Bangladesh’s electoral history has been marked by sharp swings in power, boycotts, and military interventions. After independence in 1971, the first election in 1973 saw the Awami League under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman win 292 of 300 seats. Following his assassination in 1975 and subsequent military rule, the 1979 election brought the BNP to power under Ziaur Rahman.
The 1990s saw alternating victories between the BNP led by Khaleda Zia and the Awami League under Sheikh Hasina, often amid boycotts and mass protests. The 2001 election returned the BNP-led alliance, while a military-backed caretaker government preceded Hasina’s return in 2008. Subsequent elections in 2014 and 2018 were marred by Opposition boycotts and allegations of vote-rigging, with Hasina winning overwhelming majorities.
Our Thoughts
Bangladesh’s February 12 election represents more than a routine transfer of power — it is a referendum on the country’s democratic resilience after years of political dominance, boycotts, and institutional strain. With the Awami League absent, the contest between the BNP and Jamaat opens a new chapter that could redefine Bangladesh’s internal balance and regional posture. The decisive role of Gen Z voters, combined with the parallel vote on constitutional reforms, signals a potential generational reset. However, concerns over minority safety, political polarisation, and external influence remain pressing. The outcome will not only shape Dhaka’s future governance but also recalibrate its relations with India, China, and Pakistan at a delicate moment for South Asian stability.