Putin Arrives in India Amid Rising US Pressure and Shifting Global Equations
Image: AP
New Delhi - Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in India on Thursday for a 30-hour State visit, marking his first trip to the country since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The visit comes at a sensitive time when global diplomatic alignments are shifting, the Ukraine peace effort has stalled, and India’s relations with both Washington and Moscow face renewed scrutiny. For New Delhi, the visit highlights its ongoing challenge of balancing historic ties with Russia while maintaining growing strategic cooperation with the West.
India has followed a policy of flexible alignment since independence, choosing strategic autonomy over formal alliances. This approach helped it lead the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War, even while building deep defence and economic ties with the Soviet Union. In recent decades, India strengthened its partnership with the United States through military cooperation, technology partnerships and diplomatic coordination. Yet its relationship with Russia has remained essential, especially in defence and energy. The Ukraine conflict continues to test this balance.
Putin’s Schedule and Strategic Meetings in New Delhi
Putin is scheduled to begin his visit with a private dinner hosted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. On Friday morning, he will receive a ceremonial welcome at Rashtrapati Bhavan and meet President Droupadi Murmu. He will then visit Raj Ghat, followed by the annual India–Russia summit at Hyderabad House. The leaders will also interact with business representatives before attending a state banquet hosted by the Indian President.
The Kremlin described the visit as an important moment to review progress in the India–Russia partnership and discuss future cooperation. Putin is accompanied by senior ministers and business leaders, including defence and energy executives, signalling the broad scope of discussions expected during the summit.
Why the Timing Matters for India–Russia Relations
The visit marks 25 years of the India–Russia strategic partnership. Despite continuity in ties, recent years have seen disruptions due to geopolitical shifts. The annual summit process paused after 2021 because of the Ukraine conflict and Putin’s limited foreign travel. Modi’s visit to Moscow in 2024 resumed the tradition, and Putin’s arrival now reaffirms the political importance both sides attach to the relationship.
Regional analysts note that Russia wants the visit to demonstrate that it is not isolated globally. For India, the visit is an opportunity to maintain diplomatic balance, especially with tensions rising between New Delhi and Washington over trade, energy and sanctions.
US Tariffs, Energy Sanctions and India’s Strategic Autonomy
The United States has recently imposed tariffs and threatened further sanctions on India over its continued purchase of Russian crude oil. India became the second-largest buyer of Russian oil after the Ukraine war began, helping stabilise global prices. Imports rose from 1 percent to nearly 40 percent of India’s oil basket at their peak.
However, recent US sanctions against Russian oil companies and threats towards international buyers have brought new challenges. Major Indian refiners have adjusted their imports to avoid penalties. The result is a projected drop in Russian crude volumes entering India.
India has also increased imports of American natural gas, signalling a diversification of its energy supply. Yet New Delhi remains firm on maintaining strategic autonomy, arguing that its decisions serve national and economic interests.
Defence Cooperation Remains a Strong Pillar
Despite shifts in energy trade, defence remains the most stable pillar of India–Russia relations. Russia continues to be India’s largest defence supplier, accounting for more than one-third of India’s imports and a significantly larger share of legacy systems. Although India is diversifying, analysts say Russia will remain a major defence partner for several years due to existing inventories and specialised technologies.
India is exploring additional acquisitions, including more S-400 air defence systems, which played a crucial role in its recent air operations. Russia, meanwhile, wants to promote its Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet as a candidate for future Indian procurement. Joint ventures such as BrahMos missiles continue to demonstrate long-term collaboration.
Trade Growth and Its Limitations
India–Russia trade has expanded sharply since 2022, rising from $10 billion to nearly $69 billion, driven primarily by discounted Russian oil. However, the trade balance remains heavily skewed in Moscow’s favour. India’s exports stand at about $5 billion, consisting mostly of pharmaceuticals and machinery.
With Russian oil imports declining, total trade figures are expected to drop, making the goal of reaching $100 billion in trade by 2030 unlikely under current conditions. Both nations are now exploring ways to broaden economic engagement beyond energy.
Labour Mobility Emerges as a New Area of Cooperation
Emerging labour migration opportunities may become a significant component of India–Russia ties. Russia faces a projected shortage of more than 3 million workers by 2030 due to demographic factors. Moscow is evaluating new labour partnerships and has expressed interest in expanding recruitment from India.
This potential cooperation could help diversify India–Russia economic ties and strengthen people-to-people engagement. However, movement in this direction will depend on regulatory frameworks and the willingness of Indian workers to relocate to Russian regions with extreme weather and language barriers.
India’s Diplomatic Tightrope Between Global Partners
As New Delhi strengthens defence, strategic and economic partnerships with the United States, Europe and Japan, it must avoid antagonising key partners. India is negotiating trade frameworks with the US, European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union, reflecting the complexity of its diplomatic landscape.
Russia remains an important partner in defence and strategic coordination, while the US increasingly anchors India’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Maintaining harmony between these relationships requires careful diplomacy, especially during moments of geopolitical strain.
Putin’s visit underscores the importance of India’s balancing approach. It offers insight into how New Delhi will navigate global shifts while keeping core interests intact.
Our Final Thoughts
Putin’s arrival in India at a time of heightened US pressure underscores the complexity of India’s global position. The visit serves as an important checkpoint for the India–Russia relationship, reaffirming long-standing defence and strategic ties while also confronting challenges in trade and energy. As India seeks to maintain strategic autonomy between major powers, the outcomes of this summit will signal how New Delhi plans to manage evolving geopolitical realities. With economic, defence and labour cooperation on the table, the visit provides an opportunity for both nations to define a renewed partnership for the decade ahead.
