Myanmar Begins First Election Since 2021 Coup Amid Civil War and Global Skepticism
New election framed as democratic return, but critics call it a controlled exercise to entrench military power
Myanmar has begun voting in its first general election since the military seized power in a coup in February 2021, an event the ruling junta is projecting as a return to democratic governance after years of turmoil. Polling started on December 28 and will be held in three phases through January, even as a brutal civil war continues across large parts of the country.
For Myanmar’s military leadership, the election is meant to signal political stability, restore a civilian-led system under its supervision, and ease international isolation. For critics — including Western governments, the United Nations, and human rights groups — the vote is widely seen as a tightly controlled process designed to legitimise continued military dominance under a civilian façade.
The election comes nearly five years after the Tatmadaw overturned the landslide victory of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) in the 2020 polls, citing electoral fraud without credible evidence. The coup sparked nationwide protests, a violent military crackdown, and the rise of armed resistance groups aligned with ethnic militias.
Since then, Myanmar has plunged into one of Southeast Asia’s worst humanitarian crises. According to UN agencies, more than 3.6 million people have been displaced by fighting, while over 11 million now face food insecurity.
Voting limited to junta-controlled areas
Voting is taking place only in areas firmly under military control. The junta has acknowledged that elections cannot be held in at least 56 of Myanmar’s 330 townships, most of them located in conflict zones or rebel-held regions. Even within voting townships, entire constituencies have been cancelled due to security concerns.
As a result, nearly one in five seats in the lower house of parliament will go uncontested. Critics say this severely undermines the credibility of the process and deprives millions of citizens of representation.
The staggered voting schedule — December 28, January 11, and January 25 — has also drawn criticism. Observers argue that holding elections in phases allows authorities to adjust security measures and administrative decisions as results begin to emerge.
Who is contesting — and who is excluded
On paper, 57 political parties and more than 4,800 candidates are contesting the elections. In reality, the political field is heavily skewed in favour of the military.
Only six parties have been permitted to contest nationwide under tightened registration rules enforced by a junta-appointed election commission. The dominant player is the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), widely viewed as the military’s political proxy. In dozens of constituencies, the USDP is running with little or no meaningful opposition.
The most notable absence is that of Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD. The party, which won around 90 per cent of parliamentary seats in 2020, was dissolved after refusing to re-register under new rules imposed by the military-backed election commission. Suu Kyi remains in detention, serving a 27-year sentence on charges that rights groups have described as politically motivated.
According to the Asian Network for Free Elections, parties that collectively won more than 70 per cent of the vote in the last election will not appear on the ballot this time. More than 22,000 political prisoners remain incarcerated, further hollowing out political competition.
A system designed to preserve military control
Even if the election were competitive, Myanmar’s political system is structurally designed to protect military power. Under the army-drafted 2008 Constitution, 25 per cent of parliamentary seats are reserved for serving military officers, giving the Tatmadaw an effective veto over constitutional amendments.
The electoral system uses a mix of first-past-the-post and proportional representation, which analysts say favours large, well-resourced parties like the USDP. The introduction of electronic voting machines nationwide has also raised concerns, as the machines do not allow write-in candidates or spoiled ballots, limiting voter choice.
Once parliament is formed, the president is chosen indirectly. Lawmakers from the lower house, upper house, and the military bloc each nominate a vice-president, with the full assembly then selecting the president from among the three. This structure ensures the armed forces retain decisive influence regardless of the outcome.
Repression and fear ahead of polling
The run-up to the election has been marked by widespread repression. The Union Election Commission overseeing the vote is staffed entirely by junta appointees, including chairman Than Soe, who is under European Union sanctions for undermining democracy.
Independent election monitoring is minimal, with most Western governments refusing to send observers. A new Election Protection Law has criminalised protest, criticism, or alleged “disruption” of the polls, carrying penalties of up to ten years in prison, and in some cases the death penalty.
More than 200 people have already been charged under the law, including artists, filmmakers, and social media users. Even private online messages have reportedly been used as evidence. Social media platforms such as Facebook and Instagram remain blocked, sharply curtailing political debate and campaigning.
Why the election still matters
Despite the restrictions, the election carries significant geopolitical and domestic consequences. For the junta, it is a bid to rebrand military rule as a civilian-led government and persuade regional neighbours to re-engage diplomatically.
China, Myanmar’s most influential ally, has backed the elections, viewing them as a pathway to stability and protection for its strategic infrastructure projects. Russia has also expressed support, while India has taken a cautious and pragmatic stance.
Western governments have rejected the process. The UK, the European Parliament, and the United Nations have dismissed the vote as lacking legitimacy. UN human rights chief Volker Türk has warned that the elections are being held in an environment of violence and repression, with no conditions for free expression or assembly.
Inside Myanmar, public sentiment is divided. Some citizens, exhausted by years of conflict and economic collapse, see the elections as offering at least the promise of order. Others reject them outright as a dangerous illusion that risks entrenching military rule for years to come.
Our Thoughts
Myanmar’s latest election highlights a deeper crisis than a simple question of governance. While the junta frames the vote as a return to democracy, the absence of major opposition parties, widespread repression, and ongoing conflict raise serious doubts about its legitimacy. Elections held without inclusion, free expression, or security cannot heal a fractured nation. Instead, they risk institutionalising instability and deepening public distrust. For Myanmar to move toward genuine peace, political dialogue, humanitarian access, and accountability must come before electoral symbolism. Until then, ballots alone cannot resolve a conflict rooted in force rather than consent.