Natural Gas Prices Continue to Slide Amid Weak Seasonal Demand, Technical Pressure
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New Delhi, May 22, 2025 - The natural gas market continues to face downward pressure, with prices softening further as seasonal demand weakens and technical indicators point to continued bearish momentum.
According to commodity analyst Christopher Lewis from FXEmpire, the natural gas market has dropped by 2.81%, reflecting a broader decline from the recent high of $4.90 to $2.90 over the past few months. Although there was a brief rebound toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, the market has since resumed its downward trajectory.
Technical Indicators Signal More Weakness Ahead
The current price action is hovering near the 200-day EMA, which often serves as a long-term support or resistance zone. However, Lewis notes that the broader structure remains bearish.
“This is a market that I think is continuing the downtrend,” he said. “I expect to see the natural gas markets fall enough to test the crucial $3 level.”
One key signal reinforcing this bearish view is the formation of a shooting star candlestick pattern in the previous trading session—a classic indicator of seller dominance in technical analysis.
Seasonal Factors and Demand Outlook
The timing of this decline aligns with the seasonal dip in natural gas demand. Historically, late spring and early summer months witness reduced consumption of gas, especially in the Northern Hemisphere where neither heating nor cooling demands are at their peak.
Lewis emphasized that this cyclical pattern, combined with macro-level uncertainties, makes the market noisy and hard to time. Despite potential intraday volatility, he remains firmly bearish in the short-to-medium term.
“I don’t have any interest in buying at this time of year. Demand typically drops pretty significantly anyways,” he added.
Market Sentiment: Caution Over Optimism
While natural gas has shown bouts of short-lived recoveries, traders appear cautious, awaiting clear fundamental signals for a sustained move upward. The broader sentiment leans toward further downside, with eyes now set on whether the $3 psychological support level holds.
For now, investors and traders are advised to stay informed of macroeconomic data releases and weather-related developments that could influence short-term volatility.
