Global Warming Warning: 70% Chance Earth Will Breach 1.5°C Limit by 2029, Says WMO Report
In a sobering projection that underscores the escalating climate emergency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said there is a 70% chance that average global temperatures during the 2025–2029 period will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
This projection, released in the WMO's latest report on Wednesday, highlights a growing risk of breaching the critical temperature threshold set under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, aimed at avoiding the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.
2024: A Year of Alarming Firsts
The WMO emphasized that 2024 was not only the hottest year on record but also the first calendar year where global mean temperatures rose more than 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline — the reference point before industrialization and the mass burning of fossil fuels.
The 1.5°C target has been a cornerstone of global climate efforts, and the data indicates that Earth is rapidly approaching — and potentially surpassing — this dangerous threshold.
"We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years. This means a growing negative impact on our economies, daily lives, ecosystems, and the planet," said Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General.
Key Projections: What the WMO Report Reveals
| Climate Indicator | Projected (2025–2029) |
|---|---|
| Avg. global temp rise | 1.2°C to 1.9°C vs 1850–1900 |
| Chance of >1.5°C in any single year | 86% |
| Chance of 5-year avg. >1.5°C | 70% |
| Arctic winter warming | +2.4°C (3.5x global average) |
| Sea ice reduction (Arctic) | Significant, esp. Barents, Bering, Okhotsk |
| South Asia rainfall trend | Wetter than usual (except 2023) |
India’s Climate Outlook: Wetter Monsoons Likely
The WMO’s regional assessment points to a continuing trend of wetter-than-average conditions across South Asia — a pattern consistent with recent data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
- India experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall in four out of the last five years.
- The IMD predicts above-normal monsoon rainfall this year as well, offering some relief to farmers and policymakers grappling with erratic climate patterns.
Still, the report warns that variability will remain high, with some seasons possibly bringing drought conditions.
Arctic to Warm at Unprecedented Rates
The most dramatic changes are expected in the Arctic, where winter temperatures (Nov–Mar) are likely to rise by 2.4°C — more than three times the global average.
This accelerated warming is expected to lead to further shrinking of Arctic sea ice, especially in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk.
“Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt,” Ko Barrett added.
Regional Rainfall Patterns (2025–2029): Winners and Losers
According to the WMO, rainfall will not be evenly distributed:
| Region | Expected Trend |
|---|---|
| Sahel, N. Europe, Alaska, N. Siberia | Wetter than normal |
| Amazon | Drier than normal |
| South Asia (India, etc.) | Wetter than average |
| Some Indian seasons | Risk of dry spells |
Climate Plans for 2031–2035: A Race Against Time
The report comes at a crucial time as countries prepare to submit their next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — national climate action plans for the 2031–2035 period.
The goal remains clear: limit global temperature rise to below 1.5°C to avoid runaway climate scenarios such as:
- Collapsing ice sheets
- Widespread droughts and famines
- Irreversible damage to ecosystems
Failure to meet the target could render parts of the world uninhabitable and exacerbate migration, conflict, and economic instability.
What This Means for the World — And for India
India, one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, faces mounting pressure to scale up clean energy, cut emissions, and adapt to frequent climate extremes — including:
- Heatwaves
- Flooding in urban centers
- Crop yield fluctuations
The WMO report reinforces the need for urgent climate diplomacy, innovation, and grassroots resilience efforts.
Conclusion: No Time to Waste
With a rising probability of surpassing the 1.5°C mark even temporarily, the WMO’s warning sends a clear message to world leaders, industries, and citizens alike: climate action must be immediate, transformative, and sustained.
If trends continue unchecked, the next five years could seal the fate of our climate future.