On Thursday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced the complete withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from India, marking a notable departure from the norm. This year, the monsoon began its retreat on September 25, which was eight days later than the usual onset. Typically, the southwest monsoon makes its grand entrance over Kerala by June 1 and encompasses the entire nation by July 8, but the retreat typically commences in northwest India around September 17 and culminates by October 15.
Today, October 19, the southwest monsoon has left the remainder of the nation, according to the IMD.
The change in weather patterns is now ushering in easterly and northeasterly winds over southern Peninsular India, signaling the imminent commencement of the northeast monsoon's rainfall activities in the region within the next three days. However, experts anticipate that the initial phase of the Northeast Monsoon might be relatively weak this year.
India experienced "below-average" cumulative rainfall during the four-month monsoon season from June to September, with only 820 mm of precipitation compared to the long-term average (LPA) of 868.6 mm. This drop in rainfall can be attributed to strong El Nino conditions – a warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America, which typically results in weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.
The IMD noted that the deficit in monsoon rainfall was partially mitigated by positive factors, primarily the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which contributed to "near-normal" rainfall. The IOD is characterized by variations in sea surface temperatures between the western Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia. Meanwhile, the MJO, a large-scale atmospheric disturbance originating in tropical Africa, moves eastward, enhancing convection in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Prior to 2023, India had enjoyed "normal" and "above-normal" monsoon season rainfall for four consecutive years, with rainfall between 96 percent and 104 percent of the LPA being considered normal.