Russia finds opportunity in global chaos as US–Israel war on Iran reshapes oil markets
AP
As the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran expands across West Asia, the geopolitical and economic ripple effects are being felt far beyond the battlefield. While the war has disrupted global shipping lanes and triggered energy market turmoil, Russia appears to be quietly positioning itself to benefit from the crisis.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov recently captured Moscow’s pragmatic stance when he remarked that Russia should “secure benefits for ourselves where possible, no matter how cynical that may sound.” The statement reflects how the Kremlin is navigating the widening conflict while pursuing strategic advantages in energy markets and global geopolitics.
Russia’s strategic role in the Iran conflict
Reports suggest that Russia has been providing Iran with satellite intelligence and tactical insights, potentially helping Tehran respond to US and Israeli strikes. Western officials believe some of Iran’s recent missile and drone tactics mirror battlefield patterns seen in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
UK Defence Secretary John Healey noted that Iranian attack strategies appear to carry “the hallmarks of the way Russia is attacking Ukraine.” Analysts say the cooperation reflects a broader military partnership that developed during the Ukraine conflict, when Russia relied heavily on Iranian-made Shahed drones.
Experts believe the relationship now operates in reverse as well, with Moscow sharing lessons learned from countering Western-supplied weapons such as Patriot and ATACMS missile systems.
Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former US intelligence official, said the situation demonstrates how battlefield knowledge from Ukraine is now influencing conflicts elsewhere.
“We’re seeing lessons learned during the Ukraine war play out in real time,” she said.
Oil crisis delivers unexpected windfall for Moscow
The widening war has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. The International Energy Agency has described the situation as potentially the largest oil supply disruption in modern history.
As a result, Brent crude prices have surged toward $100 per barrel, boosting revenues for major oil exporters — including Russia.
In a controversial move aimed at stabilising global markets, the United States has issued a temporary 30-day waiver allowing certain Russian oil shipments to proceed, enabling roughly 100 million barrels of crude to reach buyers.
The decision has drawn criticism from European allies who argue that easing restrictions on Russian oil could indirectly finance Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
Economists say the surge in energy prices provides Moscow with vital resources for what some analysts describe as Russia’s “war economy.”
Russian economist Vladislav Inozemtsev has coined the term “smertonomika” — the economy of death — to describe a system where nearly 40% of Russia’s national budget is now devoted to military operations.
China and wider geopolitical questions
The conflict has also raised questions about whether China may be indirectly supporting Iran.
US Senator Richard Blumenthal recently suggested that Russia is assisting Tehran “actively and intensively,” while warning that China could also be providing assistance.
However, Chinese officials have rejected such claims. Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, dismissed the accusations as unfounded and said Beijing is working toward de-escalation and peace.
India caught in an energy balancing act
For India, the crisis presents a complicated strategic dilemma.
As the world’s third-largest oil importer, India depends heavily on shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz. With maritime traffic disrupted, New Delhi has been forced to diversify supply sources rapidly.
Recent ship-tracking data shows India’s imports of Russian crude rising to around 1.5 million barrels per day in March, marking a significant increase from February levels.
Energy security concerns extend beyond crude oil. Around 80–90% of India’s LPG imports also normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making domestic cooking gas supply vulnerable if disruptions persist.
Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has sought to reassure markets, saying India has increased non-Hormuz crude sourcing to nearly 70% of total imports, up from around 55% before the conflict escalated.
Conclusion
The escalating war in West Asia illustrates how global conflicts rarely produce clear winners. While Russia appears to be benefiting financially from surging oil prices and geopolitical disruption, the broader economic consequences remain unpredictable.
If the crisis drags on, analysts warn it could trigger a global recession, reducing energy demand and eventually undermining the very windfall currently supporting Moscow’s war economy.
Our Final Thoughts
The US–Israel war on Iran is rapidly reshaping global geopolitics and energy markets. Russia’s ability to extract strategic and economic benefits from the crisis underscores the complex power dynamics of modern conflicts — where alliances, energy dependence and military strategy intersect in ways that can reshape the global order.