Trump’s Russian Oil Crackdown Threatens Reliance Industries’ Gains from Discounted Crude
New Delhi, Aug 12 (TheTrendingPeople.com): Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL), led by Asia’s richest man Mukesh Ambani, faces a major setback after US President Donald Trump intensified his campaign to curb Russian oil exports — a move that has sent ripples through India’s energy sector and the stock market.
Reliance, which operates the world’s largest refining complex in Jamnagar, Gujarat, had emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries of discounted Russian crude imports since 2022. But Trump’s latest push to restrict global purchases of Russian oil threatens to choke a key profit stream for the conglomerate.
Stock Market Reacts to Policy Shock
In the past month, Reliance’s share price has dropped nearly 7%, reflecting investor concerns over the impact of the US crackdown. At 2:38 p.m. on Tuesday, the stock was trading at ₹1,380, down 0.40% for the day, and roughly 11% off its 52-week high of ₹1,551.
Market analysts say the decline is directly linked to Trump’s rhetoric, which has raised fears of tighter enforcement of the G7’s $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil.
$6 Billion Windfall Under Threat
According to the Financial Times, Reliance’s refining arm had gained approximately $6 billion from the discounted oil trade, citing estimates by Amrita Sen, director of research at London-based Energy Aspects.
Private refiners like Reliance reportedly benefitted more than state-owned firms such as Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (BPCL), because they export a larger share of their processed petroleum products to high-margin global markets.
This advantage is now at risk if Washington presses New Delhi to curb or halt such purchases.
The Price Cap and Its Strategic Role
The G7’s price cap on Russian crude — introduced in December 2022 — was intended to limit Moscow’s oil revenues without triggering a global supply shock. Until now, the US tolerated India’s purchases as long as they were below the cap.
The inflow of Russian crude also played a crucial role in keeping global oil prices from spiralling out of control during a period of high volatility.
India’s Defense: “Stabilising Global Energy Prices”
Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has consistently defended India’s Russian oil imports, framing them as a stabilising force in global energy markets.
“Russia is one of the largest crude producers with over 9 million barrels/day. Imagine the chaos if this oil, amounting to about 10 per cent of the global oil supply of around 97 million, vanished from the market. Prices would have spiralled to over $120–130 per barrel,” Puri told a foreign news channel.
He argued that India’s purchases helped lower global prices, benefiting both consumers and import-dependent economies.
“India has been a net positive contributor to global energy price stability, while at the same time we successfully navigated the trilemma of energy availability, affordability, and sustainability,” Puri said.
Not a Sanctions Violation, India Asserts
New Delhi has maintained that Russian oil has never been under UN-mandated global sanctions, making its purchases fully legal.
“Sensible decision makers around the world were aware of the realities of global oil supply chains and how India was only helping the global markets by buying discounted oil under a price cap from wherever we could,” Puri added.
Economic and Strategic Implications
Analysts warn that if the US pressure campaign intensifies, India — and particularly Reliance — may have to recalibrate sourcing strategies. This could mean higher crude import costs, squeezed refining margins, and potentially reduced export competitiveness for petroleum products.
For Reliance, the shift could erode one of its key competitive advantages in the refining segment at a time when global fuel demand remains uncertain.
Strategically, Washington’s harder line also tests the delicate balance India has maintained between securing affordable energy supplies and managing its deepening ties with the US.
Final Thoughts from TheTrendingPeople.com
The Trump administration’s renewed push against Russian oil sales is more than a geopolitical move — it’s a direct challenge to the energy strategies of some of the world’s biggest refiners, including Reliance Industries.
For Mukesh Ambani’s flagship, the $6 billion windfall from discounted crude is now at the mercy of global politics. Whether New Delhi can continue threading the needle between Washington’s sanctions policy and its own energy security needs will determine if this is a temporary market blip or the start of a longer-term disruption.