India-US Mini Trade Deal Likely Within 48 Hours: Talks Pave Way for Broader Agreement
New Delhi/Washington | July 6, 2025 — India and the United States are close to finalising a mini trade deal that may be officially announced within the next 24 to 48 hours, sources told CNBC-TV18 on Saturday. The move marks a significant breakthrough in trade negotiations between the two countries and could pave the way for broader and deeper economic cooperation.
The limited-scope agreement is expected to feature an average tariff of around 10%, offering short-term relief and opening the door to comprehensive Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) talks, which are likely to commence after July 9, according to the report.
While Hindustan Times (HT.com) has not independently confirmed the report, sources within the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry say the mood is “cautiously optimistic” ahead of potential announcements.
Avoiding Tariff Hikes, Pushing Dialogue
The urgency is underscored by looming tariff escalations in the US. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with CNN’s State of the Union programme that the US is “close to reaching agreements on several trade deals” ahead of the July 9 deadline, when previously suspended higher tariff rates will kick in.
“President Trump’s going to be sending letters to some of our trading partners... saying that if you don’t move things along, then on August 1, you’ll boomerang back to your April 2 tariff level,” Bessent said.
The warning applies not only to India but also to over 100 smaller countries, some of whom have limited bilateral trade with the United States. Bessent indicated that the Trump administration is prioritising fast-track deals to avoid disruptive tariff spikes.
What’s in the Mini Trade Deal?
According to sources cited by CNBC-TV18:
- The average tariff under the mini deal is expected to hover around 10%.
- It will cover select sectors, potentially including electronics, textiles, and medical devices.
- The agreement aims to resolve specific long-standing disputes, and increase market access for Indian goods in the US and vice versa.
This mini trade pact is seen as a confidence-building measure, helping both nations resume talks for a comprehensive Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) that has been in limbo for years.
Strategic and Economic Significance
A mini trade deal at this stage serves both economic and geopolitical goals:
- For India, it provides easier access to the US market, helping offset the impact of global trade uncertainty and WTO disputes.
- For the United States, the deal is part of a broader effort to rebalance trade ties and counter growing Chinese economic influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Diplomatic watchers believe that such agreements, even in limited form, could strengthen bilateral trust, especially ahead of crucial multilateral summits like the G20 and BRICS, where India's and the US’s role in shaping global economic frameworks is expanding.
What’s Next?
Negotiations for a full-scale trade pact are expected to begin immediately after July 9, once the mini deal is finalised. These talks will aim to:
- Eliminate non-tariff barriers
- Establish digital economy frameworks
- Expand investment channels
- Resolve issues related to intellectual property and pharmaceutical patents