Opinion | India’s Delayed Census Is About More Than Data — It’s About Power
By TheTrendingPeople Editorial | June 6, 2025
India’s next population Census — now slated for completion by March 2027 — is far more than just a statistical exercise. On the surface, it appears to be a much-needed data collection operation, delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic and reshaped by digital technology. But underneath that administrative layer lies a much deeper, more controversial political reality: the reshaping of India’s electoral map and the power dynamics that come with it.
The last population Census was conducted in 2011. The 2021 edition — which should have been a routine decadal affair — was postponed indefinitely due to the pandemic. Now, four years later, the new Census not only faces operational delays but is also burdened with political consequences.
A New Census, A New Politics
For the first time, India’s Census will be conducted digitally — a move aimed at enhancing speed, accuracy, and accessibility of demographic data. While this technological leap is a positive step forward, it also brings risks of data breaches, surveillance concerns, and digital exclusion, especially in rural and low-income regions where smartphone penetration is still inconsistent.
But technology is not the only first in this Census. The 2027 exercise will also include caste enumeration — the first since 1931. While this move is projected to give policymakers a more accurate picture of social inequalities, it has also raised fears of reinforcing caste divisions and identity-based politics.
At a time when the country faces a demographic transition — with both a large youth population and a fast-growing elderly population — accurate, real-time data is essential for health, education, and employment policy. Yet, the political temperature around the Census has less to do with planning for the future and more to do with controlling it.
Delimitation: The Real Battle
The real flashpoint of this delayed Census is its role in delimitation — the redrawing of Lok Sabha and State Assembly constituencies.
Under Article 82 of the Constitution, India’s electoral boundaries are to be redrawn based on population figures from the first Census after 2026. That means the upcoming 2027 Census will be the basis for reallocating seats in the Parliament — and potentially reshaping the power balance between states.
Currently, the distribution of Lok Sabha seats is based on 1971 population data. This was frozen in place to incentivize states to pursue population control. Southern states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka, which have made significant strides in reducing population growth, fear that they may now be penalized with reduced political representation. In contrast, states in the Hindi heartland — including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan — which have seen higher population growth, may gain more seats.
Such a shift could tilt the balance of power in favour of the North, where the ruling BJP enjoys stronger electoral support. That concern is not just hypothetical — it is political arithmetic.
Caste and Census: A Double-Edged Sword
The inclusion of caste data in the 2027 Census is a historic move, but also a politically volatile one. Social justice activists see it as a tool for targeted welfare, affirmative action, and equitable distribution of resources. But critics warn that caste enumeration may fuel identity-based politics and deepen existing social divisions.
The demand for caste-based enumeration has grown louder, particularly after Bihar conducted its own caste survey in 2023. The results of that survey re-energised Mandal-era debates around reservations and representation, especially in contrast to the rise of upper-caste dominance in political leadership.
The national Census will now bring caste data into the public domain on a much larger scale, with the potential to shift both policy and political strategy. Whether that leads to greater inclusion or deeper fragmentation remains to be seen.
Transparency, Trust, and Timing
Perhaps the most pressing question now is: Why did the government wait this long?
While COVID-19 disruptions are a valid reason for the initial delay, the continued postponement — in spite of administrative readiness — has raised eyebrows. Critics allege that the delay was strategic, aimed at buying time to align Census data with favourable political cycles and upcoming elections.
If the delimitation based on 2027 Census data does proceed, it will significantly impact the 2029 general elections. The BJP, already the dominant party in the Hindi belt, stands to benefit most from an expansion in parliamentary seats in those regions. Conversely, southern and north-eastern states fear marginalisation.
The Centre has remained largely silent on how it intends to manage this delicate balance. Without clarity or consensus, it risks further alienating states that already feel sidelined in the national conversation.
The Path Ahead: Dialogue Over Division
The Census is not just a demographic snapshot — it is a mirror of our country’s soul. It shows who we are, where we live, how we work, and how we differ. But it also reveals inequities, aspirations, and power structures that run beneath the surface.
If India is to move forward with a truly inclusive and transparent Census, the government must engage with all stakeholders — including state governments, civil society, and opposition parties — to build consensus around delimitation, caste data usage, and electoral equity.
The risks of not doing so are immense. A Census seen as politically motivated could erode public trust, deepen state-centre divides, and reduce faith in democratic institutions.
India deserves a Census that reflects not just our numbers, but our values — of fairness, federalism, and inclusion.
Disclaimer: This opinion article reflects the editorial perspective of TheTrendingPeople.com and is based on public reports, expert commentary, and political analysis. It is intended to stimulate debate and discussion on issues of national importance.